Fort Wayne

Conference:	Sum
Expected RPI:	209.0
Current RPI:	209
Expected SOS:	265
Current SOS:	265
Current Record:	14-14
Expected Record:	14-14
Current Conf Record:	7-8
Expected Conf Record:	7-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	13-5
Current OOC Record:	7-6
Expected OOC Record:	7-6
Expected OOC RPI:	177
Expected OOC SOS:	289

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
14-14	209.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Fort Wayne.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Oakland (182.0)	Horz	A	85-71	L	0%
11-15	Delaware St. (351.0)	MEAC	H	85-71	W	100%
11-18	Illinois Chicago (236.0)	Horz	A	51-67	W	100%
11-22	Kentucky (10.0)	SEC	A	86-67	L	0%
11-25	East Tennessee St. (93.0)	SC	A	83-73	L	0%
11-28	Detroit (318.0)	Horz	H	91-82	W	100%
12-3	SIU Edwardsville (287.0)	OVC	H	86-71	W	100%
12-6	Akron (227.0)	MAC	A	83-79	L	0%
12-9	Miami OH (159.0)	MAC	A	81-73	L	0%
12-16	Stetson (325.0)	ASun	H	88-84	W	100%
12-18	Indiana (125.0)	B10	A	72-92	W	100%
12-21	Liberty (211.0)	BSth	N	75-64	W	100%
12-22	Louisiana Tech (192.0)	CUSA	N	85-76	L	0%
1-4	Oral Roberts (255.0)	Sum	A	76-60	L	0%
1-6	Denver (224.0)	Sum	A	63-82	W	100%
1-11	South Dakota (91.0)	Sum	H	58-68	L	0%
1-13	Nebraska Omaha (284.0)	Sum	H	82-78	W	100%
1-17	Western Illinois (302.0)	Sum	A	75-74	L	0%
1-20	North Dakota St. (210.0)	Sum	H	92-88	W	100%
1-27	South Dakota St. (37.0)	Sum	A	78-76	L	0%
2-1	Oral Roberts (255.0)	Sum	H	85-75	W	100%
2-3	Denver (224.0)	Sum	H	91-63	W	100%
2-8	South Dakota (91.0)	Sum	A	86-69	L	0%
2-10	Nebraska Omaha (284.0)	Sum	A	90-85	L	0%
2-14	Western Illinois (302.0)	Sum	H	90-74	W	100%
2-17	North Dakota St. (210.0)	Sum	A	72-84	W	100%
2-24	South Dakota St. (37.0)	Sum	H	90-97	L	0%
3-4	North Dakota St. (210.0)	Sum	N	82-86	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Fort Wayne's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Fort Wayne's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Fort Wayne.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Fort Wayne	Sum	26.42	26.42	52.63	52.63	1.39	1.39
North Dakota St.	Sum	6.21	6.21	42.31	42.31	-0.96	-0.96
South Dakota St.	Sum	4.63	4.63	78.57	78.57	2.64	2.64
South Dakota	Sum	4.59	4.59	71.43	71.43	1.97	1.97
Denver	Sum	4.52	4.52	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Western Illinois	Sum	4.49	4.49	31.82	31.82	-1.63	-1.63
Oral Roberts	Sum	4.48	4.48	26.92	26.92	-2.07	-2.07
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	4.46	4.46	22.22	22.22	-2.48	-2.48
Oakland	Horz	1.97	1.97	56.25	56.25	0.25	0.25
Illinois Chicago	Horz	1.96	1.96	51.72	51.72	0.07	0.07
Detroit	Horz	1.93	1.93	20.69	20.69	-1.13	-1.13
Miami OH	MAC	1.92	1.92	43.33	43.33	-0.26	-0.26
Stetson	ASun	1.91	1.91	29.63	29.63	-0.78	-0.78
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	1.89	1.89	31.03	31.03	-0.72	-0.72
East Tennessee St.	SC	1.87	1.87	70.97	70.97	0.78	0.78
Delaware St.	MEAC	1.84	1.84	6.90	6.90	-1.59	-1.59
Kentucky	SEC	1.84	1.84	69.70	69.70	0.73	0.73
Akron	MAC	1.84	1.84	40.00	40.00	-0.37	-0.37
Indiana	B10	1.79	1.79	53.33	53.33	0.12	0.12
Liberty	BSth	1.79	1.79	56.67	56.67	0.24	0.24
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	1.79	1.79	46.67	46.67	-0.12	-0.12
Missouri St.	MVC	0.31	0.31	53.12	53.12	0.02	0.02
IUPUI	Horz	0.30	0.30	32.14	32.14	-0.11	-0.11
Milwaukee	Horz	0.28	0.28	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.26	0.26	20.00	20.00	-0.16	-0.16
North Dakota	BSky	0.24	0.24	33.33	33.33	-0.08	-0.08
Drake	MVC	0.24	0.24	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Green Bay	Horz	0.23	0.23	33.33	33.33	-0.08	-0.08
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.23	0.23	32.35	32.35	-0.08	-0.08
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.23	0.23	68.97	68.97	0.09	0.09
Montana St.	BSky	0.22	0.22	36.67	36.67	-0.06	-0.06
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.21	0.21	34.48	34.48	-0.06	-0.06
Wright St.	Horz	0.20	0.20	71.88	71.88	0.09	0.09
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.20	0.20	58.62	58.62	0.03	0.03
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.19	0.19	64.52	64.52	0.06	0.06
Bowling Green	MAC	0.17	0.17	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.17	0.17	75.76	75.76	0.09	0.09
Kansas	B12	0.17	0.17	79.41	79.41	0.10	0.10
Toledo	MAC	0.17	0.17	66.67	66.67	0.06	0.06
Western Michigan	MAC	0.17	0.17	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.15	0.15	70.00	70.00	0.06	0.06
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.15	0.15	24.24	24.24	-0.08	-0.08
UTEP	CUSA	0.15	0.15	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.15	0.15	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.14	0.14	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
USC Upstate	ASun	0.13	0.13	10.71	10.71	-0.10	-0.10
Colorado	P12	0.12	0.12	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.12	0.12	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
San Jose St.	MWC	0.12	0.12	10.34	10.34	-0.10	-0.10
UC Irvine	BW	0.12	0.12	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Wyoming	MWC	0.12	0.12	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.12	0.12	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.12	0.12	80.00	80.00	0.07	0.07
USC	P12	0.12	0.12	67.65	67.65	0.04	0.04
TCU	B12	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
UMKC	WAC	0.12	0.12	27.59	27.59	-0.05	-0.05
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Campbell	BSth	0.12	0.12	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.12	0.12	25.81	25.81	-0.06	-0.06
Iowa	B10	0.12	0.12	42.42	42.42	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.12	0.12	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Louisville	ACC	0.12	0.12	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
UCLA	P12	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Kent St.	MAC	0.12	0.12	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Troy	SB	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.11	0.11	25.81	25.81	-0.05	-0.05
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.11	0.11	77.42	77.42	0.06	0.06
Lipscomb	ASun	0.10	0.10	68.97	68.97	0.04	0.04
Penn St.	B10	0.09	0.09	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Arizona	P12	0.09	0.09	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.09	0.09	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
Nebraska	B10	0.09	0.09	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Arkansas St.	SB	0.09	0.09	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.09	0.09	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Arkansas	SEC	0.09	0.09	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.09	0.09	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	82.76	82.76	0.06	0.06
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.09	0.09	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Austin Peay	OVC	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.09	0.09	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Duke	ACC	0.09	0.09	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.09	0.09	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.09	0.09	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
Central Michigan	MAC	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.09	0.09	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.09	0.09	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.09	0.09	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.09	0.09	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Radford	BSth	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.09	0.09	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.09	0.09	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.08	0.08	87.88	87.88	0.06	0.06
Mercer	SC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Furman	SC	0.08	0.08	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Alabama	SEC	0.08	0.08	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.08	0.08	75.76	75.76	0.04	0.04
American	Pat	0.07	0.07	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
Butler	BE	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Jacksonville	ASun	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Little Rock	SB	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
Montana	BSky	0.06	0.06	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Navy	Pat	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
NJIT	ASun	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.06	0.06	16.13	16.13	-0.04	-0.04
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Stanford	P12	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Tulsa	Amer	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
UNLV	MWC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Washington	P12	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
FIU	CUSA	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
South Florida	Amer	0.06	0.06	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Belmont	OVC	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.06	0.06	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Wichita St.	Amer	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.06	0.06	16.67	16.67	-0.04	-0.04
Michigan	B10	0.06	0.06	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Purdue	B10	0.06	0.06	82.35	82.35	0.04	0.04
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
High Point	BSth	0.06	0.06	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.06	0.06	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Marshall	CUSA	0.06	0.06	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.06	0.06	76.67	76.67	0.03	0.03
North Texas	CUSA	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Presbyterian	BSth	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Rutgers	B10	0.06	0.06	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
UTSA	CUSA	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Winthrop	BSth	0.06	0.06	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Chicago St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	3.33	3.33	-0.05	-0.05
Fordham	A10	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Samford	SC	0.06	0.06	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
The Citadel	SC	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
VMI	SC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Western Carolina	SC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Wofford	SC	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
UCF	Amer	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	15.62	15.62	-0.02	-0.02
Creighton	BE	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.03	0.03	23.08	23.08	-0.02	-0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
East Carolina	Amer	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	22.22	22.22	-0.02	-0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Penn	Ivy	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Saint Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Seattle	WAC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
UMBC	AE	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Valparaiso	MVC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Appalachian St.	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Charlotte	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Davidson	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
George Mason	A10	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia St.	SB	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Hartford	AE	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Houston	Amer	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Maryland	B10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Notre Dame	ACC	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Princeton	Ivy	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.03	0.03	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Texas	B12	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Tulane	Amer	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia Southern	SB	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Xavier	BE	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
New Orleans	Slnd	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Syracuse	ACC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	44.12	44.12	-0.00	-0.00
Towson	CAA	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
LSU	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Monmouth	MAAC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Utah Valley	WAC	0.03	0.03	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
Vermont	AE	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
West Virginia	B12	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01